The presenters of this session share the results of their ongoing, longitudinal research study on predictors of student retention, progression, and completion at a four-year, fully online university. Both civilian and military student demographic data (N = 288,726) spanning a ten-year period (2007-2016) were examined and revealed variables that predicted retention, progression, and completion of an online degree or credential, and further illustrate how, and why they have changed over this period.
Economic pressures are one of the most significant factors working against student success in higher education today. Reactive, short-term solutions are distracting institutions from addressing long-term challenges that demand proactive approaches. Global shifts in the economy, demographics, mobility, and innovation remain core catalysts directly impacting higher education in the United States and abroad. Academic institutions that adopt a strategic, long-term mindset are not only successful in preparing for upcoming global shifts; but they are also well-positioned to succeed with respect to internal initiatives as well.
The current, multi-year study presents the backdrop for how these global changes have affected student retention, progression, and completion of an online degree or credential, through the examination of longitudinal data related to student demographics, transfer credits, enrollment patterns, etc. In their previous studies, authors Boston, Layne, and Ice (2012, 2013) identified significant predictor variables spanning years 2006-2009 and then replicated the research for years 2007-2012. From 2006-2009 the top three most significant predictors of student disenrollment were 1) no transfer credits; 2) grade of F or W, and 3) the number of registrations. However, by 2010, surprising and unexpected changes in predictor variables began to emerge and have persisted in subsequent years. Results of the current study a) present the retention predictor variable shifts over time; b) illustrate the correlation of these shifts in light of global demographical, financial, mobility, and innovational changes; and c) provide a new canvas from which to approach further retention, progression and completion studies.